VOV.VN - Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 44.4% in volume in July, but the average export price fell 20.4% year on year to its lowest level since June 2024, as rising global supply puts pressure on prices despite solid demand from major markets.
Export volume rises while value growth lags
According to Vietnam Customs, Vietnam exported 147,890 tonnes of coffee for US$642.5 million in July, up 44.4% and 15%, respectively, from the same month last year. Compared with June, export volume rose 17%, while export value increased 9.7%.
However, the increase in volume was not matched by prices. The average coffee export price fell to US$4,345 per tonne in July, down 6.2% from the previous month and 20.4% year on year, the lowest level since June 2024.
Statistics also show Vietnam shipped abroad around 1.2 million tonnes of coffee worth US$5.45 billion in the first seven months of the year. Export volume increased 10.4%, while export value fell 11.2%, mainly due to a 19.6% decline in the average export price to US$4,552 per tonne.
This shows that the coffee industry’s challenge in the second half of the year is not simply to sell more, but also to maintain the value generated by each tonne of exports.
Demand in several major markets continues to provide room for export growth. The European Union was the largest market, accounting for 43.3% of Vietnam’s coffee export volume and 40.6% of export value in the first seven months, with 518,181 tonnes worth US$2.2 billion.
Exports to the United States also rose 36.4% in volume and 5.9% in value to 84,946 tonnes. Notably, coffee exports to the US alone surged 725.3% year on year in July.
Markets including China, India, Cambodia and New Zealand also recorded strong increases in imports of Vietnamese coffee. The figures indicate that demand for Vietnamese coffee is relatively strong despite pressure on average export prices.
EUDR, value-added processing offer new opportunities
In the coming months, coffee meeting the requirements of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is expected to create additional room for both export volume and prices.
Nguyen Nam Hai, chairman of the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (Vicofa), noted that many buyers are seeking EUDR-compliant coffee for contracts signed from October 2026. Export volume could rise by 8-10%, while EUDR-compliant lots could command a premium of around US$50 per tonne over conventional coffee.
“Vietnam is considered one of the countries with the lowest EUDR-related risk. Consequently, there is significant buyer interest in coffee that meets these requirements,” Hai said.
According to Vicofa, around 35-40% of Vietnam’s coffee supply could meet EUDR requirements.
At the same time, value-added coffee processing is expected to help increase export value as global demand grows. Hai said many domestic companies already have processing orders booked through the final months of the year.
These factors provide a basis for Vietnam’s coffee industry to target US$9 billion in export revenue in 2026. Yet, the outlook for prices is less favourable.
Global supply puts pressure on prices
According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global coffee production in the 2026-2027 crop year could reach around 189.7 million bags, and consumption is estimated at around 179.7 million bags. Global supply exceeding demand by about 10 million bags could put downward pressure on coffee prices.
“As the supply of coffee entering the market rises, prices are likely to face downward pressure,” Hai stressed.
The Vicofa leader said the increase in global supply is partly the result of coffee prices remaining high for about three years, encouraging farmers in many countries to invest in cultivation, improve yields and expand planted areas.
The pressure is already being reflected in Vietnam’s domestic market. Farmgate prices for raw coffee beans in the Central Highlands rose to VND98,300-99,000 per kilogram in early August, before falling by around VND4,100 to VND94,200-94,900 per kilogram on August 15.
On the London exchange, September 2026 robusta futures closed at US$3,621 per tonne on August 15, down 4.3% from the end of July. Meanwhile, September 2026 arabica futures on the New York exchange edged up 1.8% to 338.1 US cents per pound.
The market is also turning its attention to Vietnam’s 2026-2027 coffee crop, which is expected to begin in October, with new supplies potentially reaching the market from November. Some traders agreed output in parts of Lam Dong and Gia Lai could decline due to weather conditions, while farmers have already sold most of their stored coffee.
To achieve the US$9 billion export target, higher export volumes alone will not be enough; increasing the share of coffee that meets new standards and expanding value-added processing to raise value per unit will be a key challenge for the industry.
VOV.VN - Vietnam and Uganda are stepping up cooperation to build more sustainable and climate-resilient coffee value chains, drawing on shared experience in production, technology, capacity building and market development.
The Hong Kong International Food Expo PRO 2026 (HKTDC Food Expo PRO 2026) opened in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China) on August 13, drawing more than 1,850 exhibitors from over 30 countries and territories.
.JPG&w=640&q=100)
Bình luận
Bình luận của bạn sẽ được xét duyệt trước khi đăng